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Turkey: The Judiciary and the Country's Identity Crisis

Turkey: The Judiciary and the Country's Identity Crisis

Released on 2013-05-27 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 1672031
Date 2009-05-21 01:38:34
From noreply@stratfor.com
To allstratfor@stratfor.com

Turkey: The Judiciary and the Country's Identity Crisis


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Turkey: The Judiciary and the Country's Identity Crisis 

May 20, 2009 | 2216 GMT 
Turkish President Abdullah Gul at a ceremony in Damascus, Syria, on May 
16 
LOUAI BESHARA/AFP/Getty Images 
Turkish President Abdullah Gul at a ceremony in Damascus, Syria, on May 
16 
Summary 

Turkish President Abdullah Gul of the Islamist-rooted Justice and  Development (AK) Party announced May 20 that he has no concerns over a  court ruling that could require him to stand trial on embezzlement  charges. Gul has been caught in another battle between Turkey's  fractured Islamist movement and the secularist establishment. Though Gul  is playing it cool for now, the AK Party has a number of domestic  challenges ahead in trying to strike a comfortable Islamist-secularist 
balance so that it can focus more on an ambitious foreign policy agenda. 

Analysis 

Defending himself against an impending court case, Turkish President  Abdullah Gul said May 20, "The post of president is a highest office. My  only concern is over the damaging of this highest office. I have no fear  to be judged if it is necessary as a result of legal procedure." 

Gul was charged May 18 by the high criminal court in Ankara's Sincan  district in an old court case that accused the Justice and Development  (AK) Party leadership of embezzling millions of dollars in state funds  when the party's predecessor was shut down by the Constitutional Court  in 1997. Once Gul was elected president in 2007, Ankara's general  prosecutor judged that Gul could not be tried in the case because he has  immunity as president.

The ruling was based on a provision in the  Turkish Constitution that stipulates presidents cannot be tried for  anything except treason. Osman Kacmaz, head of the Sincan 1st High  Criminal Court in Ankara, however, is challenging the prosecutor's  ruling, claiming that the president's immunity is irrelevant and that if  Turkish law is broken, no one should be exempt from standing trial. 

The Ankara court ruling is part and parcel of Turkey's interminable  identity crisis, which pits Islamism against the secularist ideals that  formed the state under Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. The Islamist-rooted AK  Party is all too familiar with its struggle against the  secularist-dominated judiciary. The Constitutional Court banned three AK  Party predecessors - Milli Selamet Partisi (in 1980), Refah Partisi (in  1998) and Fazilet Partisi (in 2001) - for violating the state's  secularist principals. But each time the court came down on the AK  Party, the party came back stronger.

When the court tried to dissolve  the party for amending the constitution to lift a ban on students  wearing the Islamic headscarf, the AK Party narrowly escaped the noose  when the 6-5 ruling kept the party intact. The court also fined the  party heavily as a warning shot to steer clear of the secular redline,  forcing the AK Party to back off on the headscarf issue for the time  being. 

The AK Party realized long ago that its quest to consolidate political  power would require taking on the judiciary. Already the AK Party has  made considerable progress in placing checks on its political opponents  through media crackdowns and buyouts, and through a number of  appointments it has made to Turkey's lower judicial courts. The military  and the secularist-dominated high courts, however, remain the most  powerful check on the AK Party's rise. To counter its opponents, the AK 
Party has relied on an ongoing probe into Ergenekon, a murky secularist  nationalist movement that allegedly seeks to bring down the AK Party. 

Alleged Ergenekon coup-related arrests are announced on a regular basis  to corner AK Party political opponents, who range from journalists to  judges to military generals. It is therefore very unlikely a coincidence  that the wife of Osman Paksut *- the Constitutional Court vice president  who voted to ban the AK Party in the 2008 vote - is now being charged  with collaborating with Ergenekon coup plotters. If the AK Party were to  oust Paksut, the president would be able to appoint an AK Party-friendly  judge to the highest court to help shield the party from its critics in  the secular establishment. 

Suspicious of Gul's motives, the secularists are now coming after the  president with the old embezzlement court case. The secular  establishment not only is concerned with Gul's rights as president to  appoint Supreme Court judges, but also views Gul as having a close  relationship with the Turkish-based Islamist movement led by Fethullah  Gulen. The Gulen movement is staunchly opposed to the military's  secularist agenda and envisions Turkey as a nation being born again as a  purely Islamic power.

The Gulen movement and the AK Party share a broad  vision for a more Islamist-rooted Turkey, and Gulen's following relies  on the AK Party as the main political vehicle for its agenda. However,  the Islamist movement in Turkey cannot be viewed as a monolithic unit,  as a great deal of friction exists between the AK Party and the Gulen  movement. The AK Party is not simply made up of Islamist-leaning  politicians; there are many conservative, center-right, rightist and  pro-business members that play an influential role in the party. 

More importantly, the AK Party has a balance to maintain with the  country's historically powerful military establishment. The military  sees itself as the vanguard of Kemalist secularism and has launched a  number of coups in the past to protect the foundation of the Turkish  state. The AK Party is busy consolidating power and needs to tread  carefully in pursuing its agenda. This becomes especially important as  Turkey extends its influence far beyond the Anatolian Peninsula into its  traditional Ottoman-era spheres of influence in the Middle East, the  Caucasus, Europe, South Asia and Central Asia. 

Turkey's overseas expansion has the Turkish General Staff extremely  nervous. The Turkish military would like to see Turkey's profile raised,  though not at the expense of its secularist foundation. This is a  concern that has come to light more recently as the AK Party, backed by  Washington, has promoted an Islamic image to broaden its appeal in the  Muslim world. 

In addition, the Turkish military is greatly concerned about Islamist  penetration in the state's security organs. Speaking at the War Academy  in Istanbul, Chief of General Staff Gen. Ilker Basbug expressed these  concerns when he called on the civilian leadership in the AK Party to  take into consideration "the concerns and recommendations of the  military" to promote a healthier civil-military relationship. Basbug  even called out the Gulen movement by claiming that "religious-based 
communities consider themselves as political actors and think they can  strengthen their positions. This is wrong. These sorts of communities  are targeting the military to reach their goals." 

The AK Party is in the middle of a broader struggle between the Gulen  movement and the military. The AK Party understands that it must work  with the military to fulfill its role as a resurgent regional power.  Though Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has kept his distance  from the Gulen movement, Gul's connections to the group are throwing the  AK Party back into the hot seat. Given the disagreements within the  Supreme Court over the fresh charges against Gul, it is unlikely that 
the president runs much of a risk of being ousted. That said, this court  case is yet another example of how the secularists expect the AK Party  to take a more definitive line on the separation of mosque and state  before it gets caught up in its foreign policy agenda. 

Source

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