The New Turkey
DISCUSSION - Gulen Update

Re: [MESA] DISCUSSION - Gulen Update


I see. I will be watching for possible splits within AKP as a result of this struggle between AKP and Gulen. One thing that comes to my mind is that this could have an impact on Gul - Erdogan r'hip as Gul is closer to Gulen and Erdogan wants to act more independently.  Latest news is that Gulen is planing to come to Turkey after the elections. Funny times...

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From: "Reva Bhalla" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
To: "Middle East AOR" <mesa@stratfor.com>
Sent: Monday, October 18, 2010 5:01:22 AM
Subject: Re: [MESA] DISCUSSION - Gulen Update

Emre, thanks for this update. I agree with your assessment... the Gulenists are on the defensive, and we need to figure out to what extent the AKP is pushing them on teh defensive and whether this is also causing splits within the AKP itself. 

On Oct 15, 2010, at 7:02 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

Gulen is coming under pressure and making counter-moves. Police chief's case made a huge impact on the movement's agenda. They never thought that the case would bring the Gulen movement in to the light this much. (Or as some of the journalists claim, AKP opened the case against the police chief to tighten the grips on the movement).

There is no single day where Gulen is not debated on the TV. The general feeling in Turkey currently is that Gulen movement (cemaat) is in control of everything and above everything.

Fethullah Gulen has been giving many interviews over the past few weeks to acquit himself of police chief's case while Today's Zaman is still attacking him to demonstrate that he is guilty. But Gulen public appearance intensified this past week. He gave an interview in which he directly responded allegations that were made by the police chief in his book about Gulenist infiltration to state institutions.

Gulen said that his sympathizers have the right to work in government institutions (from foreign ministry to the intelligence) and this could not be called "infiltration" because as Turkish citizens, they have the right to do so. Moreover, there is nothing wrong in encouraging them to do this.

Here is my reading: while what Gulen says is legally and politically correct, he implicitly admits two things. First, there is a group called Gulen sympathizers (which is important because this was denied by some Gulenist people). Second, Gulen encourage people to work in government institutions. Be it infiltration or employment, Gulen admits the fact that he has a clan within the state.

Further confirming this, Zaman columnist Huseyin Gulerce (He is the closest to Fethullah Gulen and what he says is considered as Gulen's personal words in Turkey) recently said in an interview that presence of the Gulenist clan in the government is exaggerated and Gulenists do not represent more than 2% in high bureaucracy. Numbers don't matter, again this is acceptance of Gulenist presence in the institutions.

Briefly, Gulen is on the defense for the moment but while defending himself, he accepts some things about his movement that others were claiming.

But the story does not end here. Huseyin Gulerce, in his interview, made a counter-move against AKP, which I think supports the theory that Gulen movement thinks that current pressure on the movement is applied by AKP. Gulerce said that AKP did not do anything in favor of Alevis in Turkey so far and did not recognize Alevi Houses (Cem Evi in Turkish, Alevi shrine) as official shrines despite increasing demands from them. This is a very smart move.

Because the status of Alevis is a very controversial issue in Turkey. Alevis traditionally vote for CHP. AKP started an Alevi initiative over the past few years but is still far from matching their demands (the key is recognition of Alevi Houses by the government).

This issue became even more popular last week because as you may know, Erdogan recently circumvented CHP's proposal to prepare the new constitution before the election by saying that if CHP was sincere, it would have agreed to settle the headscarf issue in a snap first. CHP, in return, said that this issue should be settled in a greater framework, including rights of Alevis.

So, Alevi rights became an issue again between AKP and CHP recently. Coming back to Gulerce's interview, I am sure you already understood the message: We, Gulen movement, can change our side and support CHP if you AKP guys mess with us.

Aaand good news..Gulerce said today that Gulen missed his country so much and he wants to come to Turkey when the weather gets better to travel here before he dies. Erdogan will not like this.

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Emre Dogru

STRATFOR
Cell: +90.532.465.7514
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emre.dogru@stratfor.com
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Emre Dogru
STRATFOR 
Cell: +90.532.465.7514
Fixed: +1.512.279.9468 
emre.dogru@stratfor.com 
www.stratfor.com